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Time: 2013-07-17

The growing "" exit fever" "gradually spread to China

polypropylene

In the market, the domestic supply situation is grim, and the downstream medium and low speed growth is difficult to follow the crazy increase in output. Since 2015, the spot market has been in a decline channel as a whole, and the wire drawing fell below 6000 yuan/ton in 2016. In order to protect their profits, businesses have been looking for a way out. It is understood that in 2016, the export boom began to spread in east China and south China coastal areas, and showed a gradual upward trend, which is also due to the weak domestic demand and large export profit space. In terms of the current export market of polypropylene, we make a simple analysis from the following aspects:

First, the domestic supply and demand situation is grim under the low price competition to force businesses to find him

Since 2014, PP production capacity has expanded rapidly by 4.9 million tons, and the polypropylene market is facing unprecedented new difficulties. Whether the sharp increase in supply can be matched with the downstream demand will be related to the emergence of a series of problems in the polypropylene industry chain.

In 2014-2016, domestic PP output showed a rapid growth trend, with an average growth rate of 16.97%. It is expected that PP output will increase to as much as 19 million tons by the end of 2016. The sharp increase of market supply has brought great pressure to merchants, and it is difficult to keep up with the low-speed demand, thus the contradiction between supply and demand keeps escalating.

From 2014 to 2016, PP import volume showed a trend of gradual decrease. Due to the continuous increase of domestic new energy and expansion, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic middle and low-end products gradually increased, and meanwhile, the competitive advantages of imported middle and low-end products were reduced. At the same time, the low-cost sources of coal-to-olefin rapidly entered the market, and domestic products were all exported. The import dependence dropped to 16% in 2015. Due to the imbalance between domestic supply and demand, to avoid the pressure of low-end products competition, the importer has to reduce the import volume to avoid excessive losses.

From 2014 to 2016, the apparent consumption of PP presented a trend of gradual slowing down, with an average growth rate of about 9.13%. Currently, there is a trend of diversification in the downstream. Although general products are in great demand, they have a small development potential due to low profit space. However, in the high-end field, the domestic production technology still lags behind the import. Affected by the rich profit space and the great development potential of the future market, the development in the high-end field is favored by more and more people.

Conclusion: at present, the supply and demand are unbalanced. The only way to alleviate the imbalance is to reduce the supply and improve the downstream demand development. But the recent concentrated release of capacity, still can not avoid the fact that the increase in supply. Therefore, the recent manufacturers of mass maintenance, still can not alleviate the market decline. So more and more businesses began to look at domestic exports, export development, we continue to analyze.

Second, the export volume increases month by month

Compared with 2015, the export data in 2016 showed an obvious growth trend, mainly due to the concentrated release of domestic production capacity, but the downstream demand follow-up speed is still slightly slow, aggravating the imbalance between domestic supply and demand. Most of the newly added capacity expansion devices in China focus on the production of low-end products, which intensifies the fierce competition of this type of products. In order to alleviate this dilemma, simply rely on maintenance to increase, the impact of a very small force, we must work together. This year, some businesses are targeting the export market. In addition to easing the pressure of supply and demand, domestic low-priced goods will be exported.

More than 2016 domestic polypropylene export southeast Asia, the Middle East and the americas, southeast Asia limited by the local economic development level, the need to make up the domestic demand, a large number of imported polypropylene and America countries such as Chile import reason is a lack of supply of new capacity in recent years, the demand is normal after the expansion, the domestic supply situation highlights stress; Moreover, polyolefin is a high energy consumption and high pollution enterprise. In order to avoid the secondary pollution in China, the import from abroad can still make up for the normal domestic demand.

Third, the devaluation of the RMB has provided favorable conditions for exports

As domestic supply pressures continue to build, the export window opens. Export is also to better solve the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic market. Moreover, the continuous devaluation of RMB also provides good conditions for export. On the other hand, if the exchange rate is settled in us dollars, more RMB will be exchanged and corporate profits will be boosted. But the yuan's exchange rate is not a factor affecting exports, which determines its limits.

Four, the rapid rise of e-commerce platform, domestic sales difficulties, forcing businesses to find another way

Against the backdrop of overcapacity and weak demand,

plastic

The commodity industry is suffering in the hot water, while the e-commerce platform of commodity stands on the "Internet +" and becomes the favorite of many capitals. At present, the rise of e-commerce platforms has both advantages and disadvantages. Manufacturers can have more sales channels, and downstream factories can purchase more low-cost raw materials. However, for the intermediate trade links, especially for the merchants with traditional trade mode, it is worse. As the current plastic e-commerce platform is still in the development stage, the short-term impact on the market is still very limited, but for the long-term development, the bulk commodities have more special requirements in terms of payment and settlement, commodity management, transportation and storage, etc. Merchants should maintain their independence and better seize the market opportunity.

Five, export arbitrage space than domestic profitable

It is estimated that taking east China wire drawing as an example, the monthly average price from January to march is around 6,620 yuan/ton, and the cost of offshore export is around 900 dollars/ton. Compared with the domestic market, there is a certain profit space for export, which also provides a necessary condition for the increase of polypropylene export.

Whether export can alleviate the contradiction between domestic supply and demand

Domestic market supply and demand relations, the international market prices and plastic price conduction factors such as upstream and downstream of the industry will be on the spot market have a significant impact, so the current market price changes is more of a spot for the change of the level of supply and demand, at the same time we also there is no denying the fact that countries a new round of macroeconomic regulation and control the impact on the domestic market. At present, the tension between domestic supply and demand mainly lies in the fact that the moderate and low-speed growth of demand is difficult to follow up the excessive increase of domestic production capacity. In the future, market competition will inevitably enter the battle of low prices, and the sustained low commodity prices will lead to the reduction of traders' profits. It is also a helpless choice to look for export solutions. It is an indisputable fact that polypropylene has excess production capacity. The downstream demand will maintain a growth rate of 4-6% in the next five years, which can absorb some domestic products. It is worth noting that China will not be a big exporter in the short term due to the export channels, foreign market prices and the safety of exports.

In 2016, risk control will take precedence over profit protection. Traders' living space will be further squeezed. However, the long-term sound development of the market is closely related to the diversified market composition. Although decommercialization is a passive action, it still needs the operators to maintain their independence, avoid excessive homogenization, and survive the cold winter with a warm spring.