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Time: 2017-02-17

At the end of September,

polypropylene

1601 contract since the adjustment of the new low, below 700 yuan/ton integer mark, the decline is obvious. During the National Day holiday, the price of crude oil rose sharply. Two days later, the market began a correction. Downstream demand turned light, after the market will oscillate finishing.

Crude rebound difficult to extend

The number of oil RIGS drilled by aol continued to decline, with the company drilling 640 as of Sept. 25, four fewer than the week before and 952 fewer than a year earlier, according to data from oilfield services firm baker hughes. The number of Wells drilled by aol is down about 60 percent from its October 2014 high. Oil futures in Europe and the United States have risen in recent days amid a drop in rig count and strong economic data. A stronger dollar, however, has curbed the rally.

A stronger dollar weighed on the mood in the dollar-denominated oil futures market. The dollar rose against other currencies in late New York trading after federal reserve chair janet yellen reiterated to investors that she plans to raise interest rates by the end of 2015.

U.S. crude inventories are at 461 million barrels, down 6% from the peak of 491 million barrels, but still high, according to the EIA. The deep-seated contradiction between supply and demand has not been significantly alleviated.

The rebound in crude oil during the National Day holiday has been mostly reversed over the past week, with the market once again moving into a weak consolidation pattern. In order to grab market share, OPEC is unlikely to reduce its output for the sake of price protection, making it difficult for the rebound momentum of crude oil to continue.

Petrochemical cut factory price

Due to capacity expansion, polypropylene factory prices continued to weaken. At the beginning of September, petrochina and sinopec continued to cut the ex-factory price of polypropylene, downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and intermediate traders increased their inventories. There is an upward movement in the middle of the month. And then because

Price of plastic

Weakness, petrochemical enterprises again cut the factory price of polypropylene. At the end of the month, the ex-factory price did not pick up, the overall maintenance of the downward trend, the price of 7650-7800 yuan/ton, compared to the previous month down 400-500 yuan/ton.

New capacity continued to be released

Domestic polypropylene production was 1.449 million tons in August, up 20.2 percent year-on-year. The release of new capacity is the main reason for the continuous increase in output. In August, the polypropylene raw material production enterprise overhaul loss production month by month slightly declines, the social supply and demand contradiction is still prominent.

By the first half of 2015, the domestic polypropylene production capacity was 17 million tons, and the annual new production capacity was 1.4 million tons, of which 800,000 tons had been invested in the first half, including pucheng coal chemical and donghua PDH.

On the supply side, in the first seven months, polypropylene supply grew by 15 per cent year-on-year, with imports accounting for 18 per cent. Among them, pucheng clean energy 400,000 tons and donghua energy 400,000 tons capacity has been put into production, domestic polypropylene production growth rate of up to 21%. Can say, polypropylene overcapacity pattern has formed. New capacity due to the current

Polypropylene price

At the lower end of the scale, there may be a delay in production, which is a bit positive for the supply side.

Downstream purchase on demand

Recently, the plastic woven enterprises started to stabilize, the average operating rate of 67%. Among them, medium and large plastic knitting enterprises in order, capital and other aspects of the guarantee, stable production, slightly higher opening rate, the basic in more than 85%.

After the National Day, the plywood enterprise generally said that the order situation does not change, still by the short-term order primarily. Polypropylene prices rose again after the fall, plastic enterprises more cautious inventory. In addition, limited by the funds, manufacturers purchase more on demand, raw material inventory maintained for about 5 days.

Coal chemical industry pulls low cost

Since last year, coal-to-olefin projects have entered the production stage, and the market structure of polyolefin has changed. The cost of producing olefins from coal is 1000-1500 yuan/ton lower than the cost of producing olefins from oil (gas), which will lower the price level of polypropylene.