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ime: 2017-02-17

glue

Net news: the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the trend of chemical products clearly differentiated, including plastic (including LLDPE and PP), methanol trend is stronger than PTA and PVC. The author believes that the main reasons are industry concentration, raw material cost differences and downstream substitution. In the context of the setbacks in the crude oil rally, the overall rally in chemicals is highly limited, even looking for arbitrage opportunities between them.

Crude oil rally stumbles

For petrochemical products, the price of crude oil is the most important parameter that dominates their large scale and main trend. In the fourth quarter of 2014, the international crude oil fell sharply. Although the surplus of some chemical products was not very serious, and even the backspread structure of high premium spot water appeared, such as PP and LLDPE, the whole chemical products once dropped sharply. In late January to early February this year, the international crude oil rebound, domestic chemicals also followed a strong rebound.

From the point of view of crude oil, chemicals are the original cost variable. The Spring Festival holiday, the international crude oil setback and again downward. Despite recent reports that the number of RIGS operating in the United States has fallen for nine straight weeks, to 1,140, the highest level since December 2011, there is still a long way to go to reduce production, and some shutdowns may be ineffective or offset capacity. In addition, march and April are the most unfavorable months for crude oil, when not only the demand has not improved obviously, but also the crude oil usage will be reduced due to refinery maintenance, and the change in production will not be immediate, so the oversupply is likely to worsen, and it is estimated that the global surplus is still as high as 2-2.5 million barrels per day.

OPEC remains deeply divided and the likelihood of a near-term OPEC meeting to cut production remains low. On the one hand, the oil minister of Nigeria, which holds the rotating OPEC presidency, said OPEC could hold an emergency meeting if prices continue to fall. Ecuador agreed to an emergency OPEC meeting, a sign that OPEC producers are likely to waver in their determination not to cut output to boost oil prices. On the other hand, leaders of gulf producers, led by Saudi Arabia, have repeatedly stressed that nothing will be done to halt the fall in oil prices and that there is no need for additional meetings before the June meeting.

In addition, another important factor holding down the rebound in crude prices is oil inventories. The U.S. energy information administration (EIA) recently reported that U.S. crude inventories surged 7.7 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 13, bringing total inventories to a record high of 425.6 million barrels and more than 20 percent above the average over the past five years.

Chemical trend differentiation caused by three factors

The first is the monopoly of upstream industries. For plastics (LLPDE and PP), its raw materials are mainly ethylene and propylene, 90% of its domestic raw materials are from sinopec and petrochina, and a large part of them are imported. In addition, LLDPE and PP about 70% and 60% of the existing capacity of the petrochemical shuangxiong or affiliated enterprises. Because of the concentration of the industry is too high, in the crude oil rebound, LLDPE and PP rebound amplitude and time will be relatively magnified. Of course, with the rise of coal-to-olefin, the privatization of PP production capacity is accelerating, which determines that the growth rate of PP is inferior to LLDPE in the long run. In contrast, PTA and PVC have higher proportion of private production capacity than plastics and better marketization degree of spot goods, so PTA and PVC prices are relatively flexible and do not have the characteristics of rising amplification and falling resistance.

The second is the difference in the cost of raw materials. On the cost side, ethylene and propylene prices rose 9% and 8% in late February from early February, driven by a sharp rebound in crude. This makes LLDPE and PP prices also driven by the cost of a rebound. In contrast, PVC has two processes, calcium carbide process and ethylene process. In the case of no rebound in domestic coal prices, domestic PVC production cost, which is dominated by calcium carbide process, has not significantly increased. Therefore, the trend of PVC, which belongs to general resin (plastic), is obviously weaker than LLDPE and PP.

Finally, there are alternative differences in downstream applications. As general-purpose resins, LLDPE and PP do not have strong strengths in agricultural film, injection molding and woven bags

other

Product substitution, but PVC and PTA in the downstream application of TPE and cotton substitution, so once the cost does not have an advantage, it is relatively easy to be replaced. As for methanol, due to the rise of methanol to olefin technology, it does not have substitution at present.